“Brothers of Italy” (FdI) victory in the Italian elections was expected based on polls. Barring unforeseen incidents, Giorgia Meloni’s nationalist party will form a government together with Matteo Salvini’s far-right “League of the North” and Silvio Berlusconi’s right-wing “Forza Italia”. Italy, which has had 30 Prime Ministers and almost twice as many governments since 1946, will have its first female Prime Minister in history.
Meloni’s ideology is accurately summed up in a recent speech at Spain’s far-right Vox party: “Yes to the natural family, no to the LGBT lobby, yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology, no to Islamist violence, yes to secure borders, no to mass migration, no to big international finance, no to the bureaucrats of Brussels”. Her governing partners also have their own right-wing agenda, with Euroscepticism being their common ground. Regarding Russian aggression, Meloni has taken a stand against Russia, but Matteo Salvini, a former Putin admirer, has disagreed with the Russian sanctions, and Silvio Berlusconi has recently stated that more or less Russia was forced to invade Ukraine. Intergovernmental relations will be tenuous from day one.
However, as Konstantinos Karamanlis, a former Greek PM and President, once said, “in politics, some things are done and not said, and other things are said and not done”. Meloni has realized that and has softened her rhetoric. For example, the FdI may strongly support Christian values, but Meloni has stated that she does not intend to abolish abortion laws; she may be against the “LGBTQ lobby”, but she will hardly take back their existing rights; illegal immigration may be reduced, but the government cannot go against the rules of international law.
Last but not least, FdI, which got just 4% in the 2018 elections, has no governing experience and is expected to face the most severe challenges in the economic field. The Italian economy is characterized by stagnation, low productivity, and high unemployment, especially among young people. Italy is sitting on a debt of almost 3 trillion euros, equal to 150% of GDP, and has a poor tradition of absorbing European funds, such as the nearly 200 billion euros of the Recovery and Resilience Fund, the use of which Giorgia Meloni wants to partially renegotiate with the EU.
The formation of the most right-wing coalition government since World War 2 in Italy is undoubtedly bad news for the European Union, but Meloni lacks room for manoeuvre. The question is: If the economic situation becomes difficult for Italy, what course will the new government follow? Will it take sensible decisions, or will populism drown it? Italy’s political history and intergovernmental relations do not allow for much optimism.
(originally published in the Greek newspaper “Political”)
