The newly elected government in Germany, 2022 Presidential elections in France, Mario Draghi’s role in Italy, the US reluctance in global affairs, and the authoritarian regimes around the world are the factors most probable to determine the geopolitical shape of our world ahead of the new year.
The end of the Merkel era
The German coalition government of the Social Democrats (SPD) under Olaf Scholz, through a 177-page agreement with the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP), has revealed some core principles of the policy it wants to pursue in internal affairs. The three ruling parties seem in line with each other in environmental issues. At the same time, they also share common ground on securing LGBTQI rights, improving bureaucracy, facilitating labour inflows from abroad, and more refugee-friendly measures. On economic issues, however, a clash between the FDP, who support a free-market economy, and the statist Greens seems inevitable, while foreign policy turnarounds seem more enigmatic. In particular, the placement of Annalena Baerbock, leader of the Greens, as the Head of the Foreign Ministry, is considered a high-risk move. First signs, however, indicate that Germany will abandon its hitherto low-key tactics against China, while its stance towards Russia is expected to be more stringent than usual.
The Franco-Italian Alliance
In France, on the other hand, things are more unambiguous if recent polls, which indicate a new win for Emmanuel Macron, are confirmed in the 2022 presidential election. The French President, especially after Angela Merkel stepped down as a German Chancellor, seems willing to take initiatives that will make France -as well as himself- the main point of reference in the EU leadership, shifting the axis of power that has been German-centric during the last couple of decades. His diplomatic relations with other influential European leaders, such as Mario Draghi, also play a role in this effort. The Italian Prime Minister and former President of the European Central Bank, who has done his best to keep the European structure afloat over the past decade, is now taking steps to strengthen coordination on several issues related to the European budget and investment as well as immigration and energy transition. The Quirinal Treaty, which Mario Draghi and Emmanuel Macron recently signed, strengthens the cooperation of Italy and France on issues such as foreign policy and defence, immigration policy, culture, education, and research.
America’s Non-Interventionism & Global Turmoil
On the global stage, the situation is more complicated. The US strategic decision (which intensified under Donald Trump but continues differently under Joe Biden) to mitigate the American interference in other countries’ internal affairs leaves power gaps that authoritarian regimes have no problem filling. Aside from China and Russia, which pursue their own foreign policy agendas, several small and medium-sized authoritarian powers have been encouraged to take initiatives. The US decision to withdraw from Afghanistan enabled Pakistan (which is heavily indebted to China) to help the Taliban (who have a hostile attitude towards India) take control of the country; Iran, who is accused of trying to assassinate the Iraqi Prime Minister, assists militias in support of Bashar al-Assad in Syria as well as the Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Hamas in the Gaza Strip, while offering assistance to the Ethiopian Prime Minister who is at war with rebel groups; Turkey, in addition to its action in Eastern Mediterranean region, occupied part of Syria, aided Azerbaijan against Armenian forces and sent military aid to Libya; the United Arab Emirates, often aligned with the West in foreign policy issues (they recently signed important bilateral agreements with France), had deployed military forces in Yemen, and their drones participated in bombings in Libya while they were forming military bases in Somalia. Last but not least, Saudi Arabia fights Houthis in Yemen, Belarus sends refugees to Poland and orchestrates a hijacking to capture a journalist.
The US decision not to be actively involved in other countries’ affairs leads authoritarian regimes to take aggressive initiatives abroad, creating uncertainty and new conflicts. European powers are expected to continue disagreeing over the monetary and fiscal policy mix that they will follow in 2022. However, they have the opportunity to lay the groundwork for a more active foreign policy and diplomacy that promotes stability and prevents power gaps that are filled by authoritarian leaders driven by personal or religious agendas.
(originally published in the Greek newspaper “Political“, November 2021)
